Posted on Campaign Diaries.

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings - compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

Quinnipiac just released its latest wave of "swing state polls" from the Big Three and it has Obama ahead in all 3.

Obama is ahead in all 3, but his margins have decreased since June - so good news for the Illinois Senator but the margins stay close. (Note that McCain gained in all four of Quinnipiac's polls last week too: MN, MI, CO and WI.)

Cross-posted on Campaign Diaries

Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn't try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.

Interviewed on CNN's Larry King Live, Jesse Ventura announced that he would not jump in the Minnesota Senate race.

In a theatrical performance, Ventura listed all the reasons he was leaning against running before announcing his decision. He said that he had just gotten word of a new ABC poll that had him second, in front of Al Franken: it is incredible to him that Democrats are screwing up when they should be winning and that they are trailing an independent candidate who hasn't even declared his candidacy yet. He added that politics was now too dirty for him to risk getting into that again and he was too worried about putting his kids through the same ordeal they went through a decade ago.

More details here. .

This was first posted on Campaign Diaries.

John McCain has long benefited from the conventional wisdom that he is uncumfortable invoking his years in Vietnam and as a POW on the campaign trail. But back in December, McCain's decision to air an ad in New Hampshire devoted to his experience as a POW suggested that Vietnam could play more central a role than McCain would like us to believe. (As a side note, it is really worth rereading the late December post I wrote at the time as it is a fascinating reminder of just how late McCain surged and just how chaotic the GOP race was just two weeks before Iowa.)

The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle's most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

Originally posted on Campaign Diaries.

A new wave of polls adds to the already very long list of polls released today:

• A new ARG poll finds him ahead by 5% in Florida (this is the second poll with this result today and Obama had never led in a FL poll before).
• Obama is also cruising in New Hampshire.
• But Rasmussen finds a tie in OH (Quinnipiac and PPP had found Obama ahead by 6-11 over the past two days).

Full roundup on Campaign Diaries.

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings are posted on Campaign Diaries.